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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO

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To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (4992)	7/30/2000 9:39:54 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	of 11568

ok I'll toss my market view in also the NASD tanked 40 odd % from 5k to 3k on rate fears and who knows what else got very oversold then in 6 weeks it ran up 40% way overbought ran up on hopes the Fed had ended and pre earnings season earnings came out and it was "sell the news" to beat huge was up to beat was flat to down 10% to meet was -20-30% to miss was -50%+ new assumptions the the Fed will raise (the last?) in Aug plus wall street is off to the Hamptons for a month maybe a run up in a few weeks then selloff on annual Oct fears? no reason for the dow to do anything other than swing in a 200-500 point range the dow is diverse enought that as one sector moves one way another the other so it kind of balances out the NASD will stay big time volitile best guess is 3200-4200 till Y2001 a hell of a range if you are on the right side of the market, or a sector, or a stock you can make a ton of money fast if wrong can be real nasty just as fast or faster it's a matter of money flows just look at stocks in the hot/cold sectors internet .coms, e-commerce, bio-tech, fibre optics it's all there to see I don't think anyone can always consistantly be "hot" over time it's just too damn hard far better to keep hitting small singles, make a weekly paycheck stay in the game PS I did my weekly look at the Z port stocks to see if any were of interest PUMA (not to pick on it) is a good example of the above it got "hot" the right sector the momo mob got on it in a year it ran from $2 to $102 all strong buys on wall street in spite of no earnings now or in the future in spite of a book value of $2 in spite of a market cap 30 times sales so it ran 50 times and now has fallen 82% where from here honestly how in hell can anyone tell? if lucky you might make a bunch fast on it long or not why try when the odds are so heavily stacked against you? there are other plays where your knowledge might have a higher % chance of paying off having said thet if one wanted to do a tiny spec play on it you might leg in: 50-19, 100-17, 150-12 enough brain dumping luck to all

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