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Pastimes : FED TALK

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To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (4)3/24/2000 12:15:00 PM
From: taxikid   of 94
 
<< not going to turn this into an argumentive thread. You've made your points of arguments that concern you. I suggest you continue to drive the taxi.>>
thanks I will.

<<I don't like this tax increase on my credit cards...margin accounts,( I personally don't use margin) or even mortgage rates...and they're going higher!>>
tax increase on credit cards?>> easy.. don't borrow at the usurious rates. cut down excess spending on crap

<<Real Estate does appreciate...and IF, inflation does eventually return RE usually goes higher.>>
no the cycle is that re prices drop as rates go up, more houses on the market,cause the adjustable rate goes up.
Inflation is inevitable if we don't adjust rates. controlled inflation is better than hyperinflation.

<<Kids today have a better job market available to them and much higher salaries offered to them.They are so much better off.>>

yeah, they don't have to pump gas or work after school.
(right)The starting salaries and jobs still suck.

<<The national debt is being reduced.>>
Isn't it about time?

<<Hyper inflation? what world are you living in? The only thing that is inflating is oil prices and interest rates! And these are both being manipulated.>>
The fed has to control the interest rates to prevent hyper-inflation from happening

<<Your arguments won't win any debates here.>>
no arguments.. reality

<<My point is, the FED policy is out of control,by wrongly targeting the stock markets. The concept that the wealth effect is a villain is absurd, people will quit spending when it suits them....most people I know are investing their hard earned money in savings,stocks,real estate.>>
no people quit spending when they have nothing to spend. If they are overextended and the economy slumps and the jobless rate goes up, because one day the % rates spike due to multiple fixed cost increases, etc. then we are screwed. Then people are forced into bankruptcy putting homes up for sale, forcing the interest rates higher, and allowing those that are liquid to gobble again.
<<So, we spend some. We don't want higher taxation through higher rates. It's been long held money makes money.>>
thanks for the generalization.
<< I have great respect for Mr. Greenspan, I've been overjoyed with his abilities and policies up til now.>>
were you overjoyed when he allowed the S&L's to Slam the national deficit to new highs? do a little DD. research greenspan.... then lemme know what you think. his policies at the FDIC were deplorable. The amount of bogus loans allowed put this country into bankruptcy... don't remember '96...?

<<I'll accept your response as a vote for higher interest rates. What happens when we get moderate inflation? Do we keep raising the rates? This isn't the 70's my friend.>>
yes.. I am for raising the rates slightly. I don't borrow money or spend my children's future gambling in the stock market. I am liquid. And daytrade when i wish, and invest excess cash in select stocks/bonds.

<<I'm not the only person that feels this policy is inappropriate. I hear similar concerns voiced by economists everyday.>>
maybe you should see an MD about those voices...

now back to reality.
currently old line companies are struggling to eke out profits. Their stock prices reflect this. products are being sold at thinner margins and this keeps the profits from happening. Eventually this will put companies out of business.
example...
mcdonalds, burger king,taco bell,checkers,wendy's, etc.
Do you realize that they are fighting for your biz?
these companies are selling products for ever smaller profits. who cares? not me the consumer....i am "happy" to pay less.
gas prices wil cause expenses to go up..
shrinking margins further...
so the price must go up or these companies must sell loss leaders. They are doing that now w/ the hopes of getting your burger bucks.(they make it back on the soda)
so the costs of doing business goes up.. and the smaller chains existing and "franchising" on borrowed money have less money to pay back debt.. they go into default, which pushes up the interest rates at a rapid pace. Less competition from smaller chains, combined with higher fixed costs forces the larger chains to bump prices. Now we don't get mickey d's dollar deals. Then people are less likely to eat burgers, because their own interest rates have inflated do to the defaulted burge loans, the burger suppliers have less vendors to sell to so they scale down the cow killing, putting cowboys and meat packers on notice.
They are po'd and broke. they stop eating burgers. Now mickey d's lets people go, because they have less demand...

The people get screwed when they have less choices at higher prices.
if the fed doesn't do something, the fixed costs,the loans outstanding and the entire economy get hit. And fast.
So by tightening credit restrictions (inching up rates before they get forced up), less risky investments are made, more cows get killed, more cowboys eat red meat, you and i get our choice of fast food restaurants, and we spend less on our credit cards.
btw.i left out the entire supply side, of napkin makers, ketchup workers, madison ave ad guys, truckers, lettuce growers, and mom & pop wholesalers.
raise the rates to slow down the boroowing of money. When you have more of your own equity in a business, you tend to operate it it more efficiently.
I own my own taxis. they are not borrowed against. They are not mortgaged out,leveraged against or in any way encumbered by the fed rates.
Gas prices suck, but the consumers have to pay more. sorry.
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