The stock looks ugly!
In spite of today two press release(BW and BioWorld) REGN fell again on rel. large volume. It looks like REGN is only one in REGN-AMGEN Partners responsible for "temporary" BDNF failure. Is this true?
Last two days trade for REGN to me looks like excersise of puts option!!?? Is this coincidence or there was a info-leak (at AMGEN with purpuse)? Who will benefite and in what best posible way?
Yesterday, I spoke with Investor relation specialist at AMGN regarding the BDNF trials. She (forgot name; 805/447-3505) did not sound very disapoint. No clinical data( still reviewing data), but she point two possibility for failure: a)severe ill patients hard to treat with BDNF drug, and b) low bioequivalence of the BDNF at the spinal cord. Two on going P-I/II trials (Chicago-US and Germany-EU) will prove either hypothesis.
I can speculated that there is a "conspiracy" by AMGEN to pass heat on others (REGN), but AMGEN is one who whant to include Rilutek patients in trials (negative influence in trial outcome?). After recent "debacle" over Leptin ("miracle" drug for obesity?) projects(reasons for recent Progenitor's leptin receptor technology license by AMGN?) and news on BDNF failure, AMGN was in bad positions regards his investors. One way out is to manipulate REGN stock by "design" info-leak to selected investor( Smith Barny analyst in three weeks changed projection for positive BDNF from 80% to 30% without explanation, and at the some time they used Leptin as strong reason for "strong bay" rating on AMGN, after article that Leptin can couse diabetes and that meny obese had elevated Leptin?), and rumor spread on possible take-over(it is atractive for AMGN, but not for REGN). Alowing investor to protect themself with puts option, "retail"(therm by Henry-LGND) investor will take heat after sudden and shock news(coincidently AMGN reports positive P-III for SCF)couse dropp in REGN stock price, and preasure for take-over will rise. This will anualize negative news from BDNF trials, AMGEN was hopeing.
Maybe, this all are speculation, but, IMO there are to meny "coincidence". Also, "they" forgot retail confidence in REGN real value, REGN research program and solid finance. Price will bounce back. This is a good opportunity for start-up.
I am still positive on BDNF as neuroprotective drug. Other programs(BW news) looks promising. With two good collaborations, REGN has great future, and I hope they will prevail any hostile take-over attempt.
Today, I send letter to REGN as my suport. Hope, somebody will follow me.
Miljenko |
