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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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From: LindyBill	8/3/2012 7:46:31 AM
	of 794124

Fighting To The Last Dumb, Broke Teenager STRATEGY PAGE August 3, 2012: Al Shabaab continues to fade. The terror attacks are sloppier and less effective. Most al Shabaab gunmen have retreated to the southwest (Gedo) and the southeastern port of Kismayo. Attempts to keep peacekeepers and pro-government gunmen out of Gedo have failed, with lots of al Shabaab casualties. Terror attacks in Mogadishu and elsewhere have failed. Al Shabaab is running out of money, recruits, technical experts and much else. But the Islamic radical group is still popular with many Somalis, especially very poor young men who are uneducated and have few prospects. These inexperienced teenage gunmen comprise most of the al Shabaab dead these days. The UN and Western donor nations are trying to get more Moslem nations involved running aid programs in Somalia. This is critical as most foreign aid donors refuse to send anything to Somalia because most of it is stolen. Western aid workers have stayed away for many years because of the risk of kidnapping or worse. Moslem aid workers, however, are better able to personally supervise distribution of aid because they share the same religion as Somalia (who consider themselves Arabs). At least that's been the Turkish experience. Some Gulf Arab states have also been able to work on the ground, but even Moslem aid workers are at risk of attack in Somalia. The Turks are protected by their reputation for toughness and retribution but other Moslem foreigners have to be more careful. The long-term solution is establishing more law and order and shutting down terrorists and armed groups of all sorts. That will be difficult, because it has never been done. Banditry and warlords were suppressed (but not eliminated) during the European colonial period (late-19th to mid-20th century). The private armies proliferated again once independence was achieved in 1961. Three decades later the country fell apart, and reverted to its natural state of fighting factions and general anarchy. It's uncertain if an elected parliament and 20,000 foreign peacekeepers will reduce the violence to tolerable levels. There is also the problem with corruption. UN audits of over $300 million in aid delivered to Somalia in the last 11 years revealed that at least two thirds of it was stolen by Somali officials and aid officials. The theft was often blatant and Somalis simply deny guilt when presented with evidence of their crimes. Attempts to impose fiscal controls resulted in all manner of deceptions and even death threats against the foreign auditors and administrators.

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