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Technology Stocks : PUMA Technology

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To: Larry Cascade who wrote (500)	2/25/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: Ed Frye	Read Replies (1) of 851

According to Zack's, eps est was -$0.14. So they missed by a penny. Buyers came in anyway because most understand PUMA's time hasn't come yet, but it is around the corner. Current Q = -$0.03 and Q after that = $0.08. That's an increase from -$0.15 to +$0.08, a 6 month increase of $0.23. There are no estimates yet for next year. Assuming PUMA meets expectations this Q and next, the 1 yr Forward EPS run rate (factoring in no additional growth) = $0.32 by mid-year. Allowing for a conservative amount of growth, FEPS = ~$0.40. Assuming a conservative long term growth rate of at least 25% and a PEG = 0.8 (conservative again) yields a FPE = 20 and 20 * $0.40 = $8 = an extremely conservative floor 3-6 months from now assuming Rowe delivers as expected. The 18 month upside is probably ~$0.50 FEPS, a LTG = 50% and PEG=1 = $25/sh. All IMHO. ...............ed

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