Hi Paul, thank you for sharing your thoughts, finally. Let's address all of your points one at a time.
Paul, do you think AMD and Cyrix will affect Intel's margins at all this year? Do you think Intel will earn the $9.50+/share that every analyst is expecting?
For the first 6 months, NO. Intel seems to be booked to capacity and AMD and Cyrix will be not be shipping the K6 and M2 devices until the second half of this year.
Absolutely correct. Neither, AMD nor Cyrix will be shipping volumes meaningful to anyone's profitability until 3Q. Around the 3Q though, we might see a serious increase in volume for AMD/Cyrix. AMD is extremely proficient with respect to manufacturing. Cyrix will fab the M2 on the .33u process they have already made the 6x86 on. Neither, will enjoy the yields that Intel does. That's OK.
The M1 & K5 don't seem to be much competition for Intel and Intel is selling everything they can squirt out of their factories.
Correct in one respect and wrong in the other. Everyone seems to have sold these chips, so it is no big deal. No competition, just sales.
As for the second half of this year, I haven't a clue what will happen. The K6 and the M2 may be faster than Michael Johnson with the wind at his back - and may put Intel out of business by September.
Ah Ha! You get real funny all of a sudden. Why is that? I love a good joke as much as the next guy, but you seem to brush off performance. You've heard the rumors like everybody else. The K6 and M2 might be better than the Klamath.
sysdoc.pair.com
This link tells us that a 233MHz Klamath is 40% faster than a 200MHz Pentium on your normal app. Without the MHz and cache advantage, there is not much going on there.
As for earning $9.50/share this year - I have never seen that estimate. I believe I saw $9.10.
I didn't make these predictions so I am hardly the one to justify them.
Intel earned $2.13 in the past quarter. If their earnings were dead flat for this year, that would produce $8.52 for this year.
I heard a minimum of two, maybe three analysts, predicting $9.00/share for the upcoming year. Do you think they would be disappointed with $8.52. I'll refer you to these calls later, because I don't feel like doing the digging now.
Ooohhhmmm,
Bob
|
