Is IBM moving to fab-lite, research heavy?
Peter Clarke
11/24/2010 7:26 AM EST
eetimes.com
LONDON – IBM appears set to gradually back away from semiconductor manufacturing and to rely for its leading-edge silicon on Samsung and GlobalFoundries as foundry suppliers. Both Samsung and GlobalFoundries are set to have wafer fabs for foundry operations in the United States, which could help cement relations.
IBM, GlobalFoundries and Samsung are set to co-host the Common Platform Alliance Technology Forum at the Santa Clara Convention Center in California on January 18, 2011, but whereas GlobalFoundries and Samsung are set to spend $12 billion in 2011, IBM's spending is likely to be less than $500 million according to data from an analyst at market research firm Gartner.
For years IBM has been a beacon of research in semiconductor technology and had carried that work into manufacturing with its own processes and wafer fabs. As well as including aggressive process miniaturization its pioneering work has included high-frequency RF on CMOS and silicon-on-insulator. Such was its leading position in research that it was able to drive the Common Platform Alliance as a means of sharing semiconductor process research costs.
But an analysis of the capital expenditure plans show that IBM is gradually allowing itself to exit from leading-edge manufacturing at high volume. IBM appears to have joined the broad class of semiconductor companies that will never build a major wafer fab again.
An examination of capital expenditure data from Gartner reveals that the last time IBM spent more than $1 billion on semiconductor capital expenditure in one year was 2004, when it was the 11th biggest spender.
IBM is not in the top 20 of semiconductor capital expenditure in 2010 and nor is it expected to be in the top 20 in 2011, according to Bob Johnson, research vice president with Gartner.
There are going to be 10 or 11 companies in the billion-dollar capex club in 2011, according to Johnson's latest figures. The top 20, with their spending in millions of dollars, is currently set to be:
Samsung $9,200
TSMC $5,700
Intel $5,000
GlobalFoundries $3,200
Hynix $2,750
Micron $1,900
Toshiba $1,900
UMC $1,800
Inotera $1,600
SanDisk $1,400
SMIC $1,000
ASE $850
Texas Inst. $800
Renesas $748
Elpida $634
ST $600
Rohm $574
Amkor $552
Infineon $550
Siliconware $533
Source: Gartner, November 2010
Research heavy
Johnson puts the 2011 global semiconductor capex at about $51.1 billion, about 5 percent down on a spend of $53.9 billion in 2010.
It is noticeable that semiconductor test and assembly houses such as Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Amkor and Siliconware appear higher on the list than IBM.
As Johnson said the key to semiconductor manufacturing going forward is that "You are either involved in memory, in foundry or you are Intel." Johnson added that even Intel is getting involved in foundry through its deal with Achronix.
Although 2011 capex could be reduced from the current plans if oversupply situation materializes in the second half of 2011.
The synchronization of manufacturing processes by IBM, GlobalFoundries and Samsung provides second-sourcing opportunities. In Malta, New York, 90-minutes away from IBM's wafer fab complex at East Fishkill, GlobalFoundries is building Fab 8, a 300,000 square foot clean room fab that should be capable of 80,000 wafer starts per month. It is also noticeable that Samsung is building a wafer fab in Austin, Texas, that is expected to be dedicated to foundry work.
"GlobalFoundries and Samsung will be strong competitors to TSMC at the leading edge," said Johnson.
"IBM is not investing heavily in manufacturing. It plays the research leader role," said Johnson. "It looks like fab-lite with a research emphasis. Bernie Meyerson would never give up the research," he added. |
