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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House

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To: Mohan Marette who wrote (5021)	7/8/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	of 12475

(The Kargil intrusions may be a part of Pakistan's 'Riposte' doctrine. It involves making thrusts through narrow corridors, advancing and holding Indian territory and bargaining afterwards.) None of this is surprising to those who have read about Glenn Snyder's "stability-instability paradox." This means that whereas nuclear weapons confer great stability at the top, there is instability at the bottom. Thus, although large-scale conventional wars between nuclear weapon states are very unlikely (because of the fear that a conventional war might escalate to a nuclear level); the chances of a war at the bottom or along the periphery are quite high. Nuclear deterrence has ensured that India and Pakistan will never dare confront each other in a large-scale conventional war. But this does not prevent the two countries from waging insurgency or low-intensity conflicts on each other's territories. Pakistan has seized upon this paradox to wage a gruelling low-intensity war with India in Kashmir. The situation is bound to remain this way as long as there are Indians in power who indulge in fantasies that they can obliterate Pakistan and establish an "Akhand Bhaarat".

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