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Technology Stocks : Amati vs Westell, DMT vs CAP ADSL
WSTL 6.100+0.5%Jan 7 3:06 PM EST

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To: Techie who wrote (483)7/8/1996 9:25:00 PM
From: Rupert Baines   of 1365
 
re RBOC ADSL rollout rates

Those numbers have been widely quoted in connection with the Amertich RFP.

Many analysts are talking higher numbers, but some of them seem to have little grounding in reality.

The last TELECHOICE newsletter had a Delphi poll from about 20 'experts' - the suppliers where between 2X and 10X more ambitious than their customers (the RBOCs).

The RBOCs probably are too conservative, but don't underestimate what still needs to be done (management software, market testing/price testing, technician training, backbone capacity etc). Not to mention the (slow) take-up rate for any new service.

I'd love to be proved wrong, and I have a lot of faith in ADSL, but, despite the hopes of anxious fathers, gestation times last a long while...

Rupert
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