Will, my optimism is guarded until...
We see a difference between QNTM's price movement, and those of its competitors and trading partners. Thursday was impressive as QNTM moved in contrast to WDC, SEG, CPQ, DELL, etc. However Friday, they ALL made a technical rebound in concert. I fear that until late January'98, when QNTM's quarterly numbers remind the street once again to NOT lump QNTM together with all the other Hard Drive player, we will continue to suffer volitility at the whim of any major analyst who feels that the Hard Drive sector is failing. I would be a trader here, enjoying the 10% speads that can be made from week to week, eventually building a position in the low 30's in preparation for the Next quarter report which not only will (1) help distinguish QNTM, but will occur after what is traditionally a strong quarter, and remember (2) January a time when fund managers start re-stocking their portfolio's with attractive stocks; QNTM being one that they should continue to use as padding, and (3) Late November & Early December is a time when fund managers SELL their gainors, and buy them back 30 days later in January. After that January surge, I would probably consider a stop loss behavior around 20% below the highs it should make by then. I feel if you see that much erosion off it's quarterly earnings report, then the Street obviously has NOT learned it's lesson about QNTM's distinguishing factors, and that the day's of stomach churning price volitility will return. |
