Well AlanJon,
Perhaps I do have money to burn - as long as it doesn't go below $.50 before I get out, I'll only lose gains I've made in the past 4 weeks in my other holdings/plays. To me it's a risk I feel I can take. But maybe you're just feeling bitter because you bought too high? I'm in once at $.81, and again at $.68, for an average of $.75. As of today's close, I'm even. And believe me, I know that at .75, an increase to a buck would be deemed significant. I wouldn't be disappointed. However, I did say that I'd never reccomend averaging down to anyone, and I still wouldn't. Anyway, if it bothered you that the PR guy wouldn't tell you the specifics of the contract, don't let it. He'd be divulging insider information if he had, and THAT would have been something to worry about. Just be thankful he acknowledged that there was an annoucement pending and gave you such a short time frame. Although I have no idea whether Mr. Beaudoin is an intellegent man, he'd have to be a real putz to make claims like that to many people and risk sending the stock to hell if there was no substance behind it. He's hired to keep the stock strong, and dashing the hopes of all interested investors couldn't be good for it. The fact that time frames have transformed from "soon" to "very soon" to "hopefully within the next couple of days" is a good sign.
For anyone who is interested, I tend to divulge more about my personal investment situation than many. I do so in order to not be accused of "hyping". Everyone knows what my buy in price is, and what kind of a risk I'm taking. This is how I see TPII in terms of risk, if you buy right now:
There's a 33% chance I'll lose 1/3 of your investment (no contract, dives to $.50 on lack of news)
a 23% chance that I won't see any return at all, and get out about even in a couple weeks
a 33% chance that that the forever rumored contract will be announced, but won't be a Y2K deal, and I get around a 25% return if it hits $1
and a 10% chance that the contract will be announced, it will be Y2K, and I'll get a 100%-600% return.
So there you have it. I'm in a betting mood. If you're in over a dollar, I don't blame you for being upset - but realise that seeing this stock hit $1 would help you, too. Don't be so glum, chum! It's too early in the race to call this filly a loser.
Good luck
Chimi |
