The Oil & Gas Journal on Mega Projects
The Oil and Gas Journal has an article out, based on a study by the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London, that looks in effect at Mega Projects coming on line. The article is meant as a rebuttal to Peak Oil, but to me it looks like more of a confirmation.
The article notes that 20% of current production comes from 14 oil fields and that the large fields found in the Nineties produce only 10% of the oil produced by the 36 fields found 40 or more years ago (the peak discovery decade worldwide).
The following table shows the predicted year of peak production for fields expected to produce 100,000 bpd or more. Note that some of these are already producing,like Ku Maloob Zaap, in Mexico, which is producing 415,000 bpd.
Expected Field Start Ups (1,000 bpd):
2007 Buzzard 180
2007 Roncador 180
2008 Atlantis 200
2008 Greater Plutonia 200
2008 Kizomba C 200
2008 Tahiti 125
2009 Thunder Horse 250
2009 Valhall Redevelopment 150
2009 Urugua 150
2009 Kizomba D 125
2009 Frade 100
2010 Ku Maloob Zaap 800
2010 Yadavaren 300
2010 Vankorskoye 280
2013 Verkhnechonsk 200
2020 Kashagan 1,200
Total: 4.64 mbpd
Note that all of these fields together are expected to produce less oil than Ghawar alone recently produced, and about the same amount of oil that Cantarell, Burgan and Daqing together recently produced and about the same amount of oil that the North Sea recently produced.
The common thread? Assming that Ghawar is declining, all of these fields/regions--totalling more than three times the expected peak production from the above new fields--are in decline.
Also, a lot of these fields are "small" compared to the giants and super giants that they are replacing. And note that there is one super giant on the list that is expected to produce more than one mbpd, Kashagan--if and when the field comes on line, it isn't expected to hit peak production for 14 years.
Now again, why is anyone expecting rising production?
westexas on Saturday November 11, 2006 at 9:35 AM EST
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