alright then , Doug, answer these two questions and we'll go from there...
a) what is abx weighting in the xau...(i think its about 25 %, correct)
b) where do you figure that the other stocks in the xau will go to, i.e. anglo, placer, etcetera ? for example, the fellow from goldminingoutlook suggests an xau topping at 275, which is about a 4.5 bagger from here...
so, lets look at it this way, assume you are right about abx and it goes to zero...assume you've got 25 cents invested in abx and 75 cents in the rest of the xau...lets assume that anglo, placer and the rest have four baggers...your dollar invested in golds has still turned into three dollars (even with as i said abx going to zero)
and imo, there are better bets on participating in the pog than investing in the proportion of the xau index...for example, i like harmony, gold fields and franco nevada...others target juniors that they feel can outperform...
and i also suggested a person could underweight abx by half if they were concerned about the hedging...
anyway, lets see what happens with the boe auction...maybe barrick might go shopping !
just to close, this is only worst case scenario anyway. i think abx will work out any hedging and i think its an ok buy at these levels...
later...ike |
