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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (50447)1/10/2013 10:01:53 AM
From: E_K_S   of 78748
 
Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWE) - upped position by 20% (new 52wk low)

The company is challenged with generating sufficient cash flow while maintaining an aggressive drilling schedule. They have been selling off non-core assets to raise cash. Stock appears to me to have sold off more than is justified based on their 2013 production projections.

Company sold off today as they announced their CapeX budget for 2013. I suspect it was lower than the market expected at $900M but have provisioned another $300M if certain benchmarks are hit. They still own some quality land assets but it is still still not clear to me how efficient a driller they are. They have targeted an IRR minimum of 20% and $35K/boed cost. 2013 production forecast is lower per their presentation. That puts them in the middle of the pack when compared to their competitors so if they can bring in the new wells at these costs, then they should do ok.

To view their most recent forecast (1/10/2013) here is the link.

EKS
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