Micron begins 0.15-micron push
By Robert Ristelhueber
EE Times
(03/02/00, 7:45 p.m. EST)
SAN FRANCISCO-Micron Technology expects to convert up to half its DRAM
production to 0.15-micron by the end of the year, company officials said
during a presentation at this week's Robertson Stephens Technology
Conference here.
Virtually all of Micron's capacity has moved to 0.18-micron, and about 5
percent of its worldwide wafer starts have already been converted to
0.15-micron, beginning in its Boise, Idaho, fabs, said David Parker, manager
of investor relations. "We expect about 20 to 30 percent of our starts to be
at 0.15 by the summertime," reaching the 50 percent figure by about
year-end, he said.
Parker said the majority of the world's DRAM capacity is currently at 0.20
to 0.22 micron, "so we think we have an advantage in our process
technology."
In another presentation at the same conference, Farhad Tabrizi, vice
president for memory at Hyundai Electronics Industries, said that all of his
company's capacity was currently 0.22-micron or better. But he claimed that
Hyundai was capable of producing 300,000 8-inch wafers per month at its 11
fabs, compared to about 150,000 for Micron, and 200,000 for Samsung.
Last year, Hyundai produced 530 million 64M-bit-equivalent devices, and
expects to build 850 million in 2000 as it upgrades its process technology,
Tabrizi said.
DRAM prices recovered earlier this week, both companies said. The 64M-bit
was selling for around $5.70 on the spot market on Tuesday, compared to as
low as $4.35 the previous week, said Kipp Bedard, vice president of
corporate affairs for Micron. "Maybe we've hit the bottom," said Hyundai's
Tabrizi.
Tabrizi said he expects the 64M-bit to settle into a $6 to $7 range as
demand begins to outrun supply. "I personally expect there to be a shortage
in the second half of 2000 of 5 percent," with an imbalance of 8 percent in
2001, and 10 to 12 percent in 2002, he said.
Micron's Parker said it's expected that bit growth demand will grow by 80 to
85 percent this year, while supply will grow by just 60 to 70 percent. "That
could bode well for the (DRAM) industry."
Both companies also predict that Rambus will likely stay in the single
digits as a percentage of the overall DRAM market. "PC OEMs still tell us
they think the market will be 5 to 10 percent (Rambus) in the second half of
the year," said Micron's Bedard. "A lot of that has to do with pricing.
There's a significant price premium. They need to get supply up." Micron
expects to begin shipping Rambus parts in volume in the second quarter of
this year.
Hyundai's Tabrizi predicted Rambus would make up 5 to 8 percent of the DRAM
market in 2000, reaching about 25 percent by 2002. |
