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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject5/29/2004 8:52:52 PM
From: BubbaFred   of 74559
 
Here are excerpts from a newsletter advertisement, but some of the picks could be worthy of consideration after the markets dropped.

Brilliance China (CBA:NYSE) and Petrochina (PTR:NYSE).

Chinese Internet stocks like Sina.com (SINA:NASDAQ) and Sohu.com (SOHU:NASDAQ).

"... economic growth in the 5% to 7% range is a lot more stable, sustainable and realistic than 10%. And I'm sure that we're going to see a bunch of Chinese stocks upgraded based on this logic."

"So, the main point for me is that a 30% to 50% pullback in
Chinese stocks looks like a good opportunity to buy."

"Demographic play, China Life (LFC:NYSE). ... biggest insurance company in China.... as disposable income in China increases, so will insurance sales."

"...when I first started covering Chinese stocks, I completely missed the Internet companies. It just seemed to me that the place to invest first was in industrial stocks. That's why I liked Petrochina and Brilliance China.
But an investment in any of the Internet stocks would've dwarfed the 170% Taipan readers made on Petrochina. So this time around, I'm going to get you into Sohu.com (SOHU:NASDAQ)."

"... any of the Chinese Internet stocks - Sohu.com, Sina.com or Netease.com - are solid investments. But Sohu carries the most attractive valuation. Revenues grew at a 120% clip last year, and the stock trades with a PEG ratio below 0.6. Trailing P/E is a modest 24 and the forward multiple is 14."

"Compare any of these numbers to Yahoo (YHOO:NASDAQ) and Sohu looks ridiculously cheap. Of the three Chinese Internet stocks, Sohu has the lowest price-to-sales multiple at 7. (Yahoo trades at 18 times sales.)"

" ... Euro-Inflation Swelling: With May 2004 almost in the books, a European Commission report out today shows that inflation in the twelve nations of the Eurozone just rose to the highest level in over two years........ Compared with May 2003, consumer prices rose 2.5% this month, following a 2% increase in April. That's 0.5% higher than the European Central Bank's target rate. Needless to say, the 20% surge in oil prices so far this year contributed to a large proportion of the rise. Reflecting the overall regional rise, inflation in Germany is the highest in over two years, while Spain's inflation sits at a 14-month high of 3.4%. .......With European consumers already reluctant to spend, rising prices aren't likely to encourage them. Surveys show that they plan to save more over the next year anyway, which would hold back a full economic recovery in the region."

"Inflation Up, Economy Down in Canada: High oil prices also propelled Canada's inflation rate to 1.6% in April - the highest level of the year to date. Consumer prices rose 0.2% from March as gasoline costs rose 6.9%, cigarettes increased 7.9% and electricity jumped a nasty 15%. ... The overall Canadian economy suffered a decline during the first quarter - but still grew at a healthy rate. After the fourth quarter's solid 3.8% growth performance, I suppose there was a good chance for a letdown, especially considering that the US economy eased off from its frantic pace at the end of 2003 and commodities prices have risen steadily this year. ... So a report due out on Monday will show the economy posted 2%
annualized first-quarter growth, lower than the Bank of Canada's 2.75% projection for 2004 and the IMF's 2.6% forecast."
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