Maybe its time to short NVDA and stay with it a while.
The 6 month chart shows a series of failed attempts to rally. Each attempt does not even manage to take out the previous area of support before failing:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2!c20][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
From Briefing.com: Aug 22 2002 2:56 PM In Play ATI Tech design wins demonstrate co is gaining momentum - CSFB (ATYT) 7.21 -0.19: CSFB says that today's ATYT announcements of design wins in AAPL's PowerMac and HPQ's Compaq Presario 8000 series indicate that the co is clearly gaining momentum, particularly in the more lucrative high-end graphics market segment; also, ATYT's wins represent share gains against NVDA, as the latter was the incumbent in both of these designs.
Aug 16 2002 9:54 AM In Play NVIDIA upped to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC; target $15 (NVDA) 9.94 -0.35:
Aug 15 2002 4:31 PM In Play NVIDIA reports EPS of $0.03 (NVDA) 10.29 +0.67: Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.03 per share including inventory writedowns, which was a bit better than their July 30 preannouncement of roughly breakeven including the writedowns. Revenues rose 64.4% year/year to $427.3 mln vs the $419.3 mln consensus, and preannounced range of $410-430 mln.
Jul 30 2002 4:26 PM In Play NVIDIA warns of break-even qtr including write-offs (NVDA) 16.22 +1.10: -- Update -- Due to broad weakness in the personal computer market, co expects Q2 revs to fall sequentially to a range of $410-$430 mln. In addition, NVDA expects to take a inventory write-off in the qtr, which should result in earnings at or above break-even. The Multex consensus estimates for the qtr are $551.86 in revs and EPS of $0.40.
biz.yahoo.com
New ATI Design Wins Bad News for Nvidia - Analyst
Thursday August 22, 8:12 pm ET
By Ben Berkowitz
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Two new design wins for graphics chip maker ATI Technologies Inc. (Toronto:ATY.TO - News) are a bad sign for competitor Nvidia Corp. (NasdaqNM:NVDA - News), as the wins will eat at Nvidia's market share, an analyst said on Thursday.
On Thursday, ATI said its chips would power new computers from both Apple Computer Inc. (NasdaqNM:AAPL - News) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ - News) The company also said it has shipped its new, widely-anticipated high-end graphics chip to retailers.
ATI said its Radeon 9000 Pro chip is now shipping as the standard graphics component in Apple's new Power Mac G4 line of computers, designed as advanced workstations with dual processors and advanced memory capacity.
ATI also said HP has selected the Radeon 9700 line for a series of computers under its Compaq Presario 8000 Series brand to be released later this year.
Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Tim Mahon, in a research note on Thursday afternoon, said the new deals displaced Nvidia from the standard configurations of both computer lines.
Mahon said the design wins represented market share gains for ATI against Nvidia and bode well for ATI's prospects.
A spokeswoman for Apple was not immediately available for comment, nor was a spokesman for Nvidia. A spokesman for HP had not seen ATI's release and could not immediately comment.
Nvidia shares closed 3.4 percent lower, or down 43 cents, at $12.30 on the Nasdaq, and ATI shares also ended down 3.4 percent, or 25 cents, at $7.15.
Mahon said Thursday's news in particular "is a clear indication that (ATI) has become accepted by the market as the performance leader in graphics processors in this latest product cycle."
While he estimated the Apple deal would generate margins in-line with averages, he said the HP deal would generate margins "significantly above" average, which he said was owing to leverage from their market position.
ATI 'GAINING MOMENTUM'
"As these new design win announcements indicate and in-line with our thesis, (ATI) is clearly gaining momentum, particularly in the high-end, very high (average selling price) and margin, graphics market segment," Mahon said.
The news comes a week after Nvidia posted a smaller profit for its second quarter on weak PC demand, an inventory backlog, and an unexpected shift in the channel to a higher mix of low-end graphics chips.
Nvidia has come under criticism from analysts for declining to specify when its next-generation graphics chip, known as NV30, will ship, other than to say there will be some availability this holiday season.
Financial analysts have also criticized the company for waiting until the second quarter ended before it warned that revenue would be far below expectations because of that PC weakness and the inventory issues.
Earlier this week, Nvidia shares jumped sharply higher after HP said it would use an Nvidia chipset in a new desktop PC aimed at business, which Nvidia said was an important milestone as it increases its focus on business machines.
Nvidia shares, which rose more than 300 percent in 2001 and were the best-performing on the S&P 500 index, have fallen nearly 82 percent this year, battered by the warning, a regulatory probe into its accounting practices and a dispute over chip pricing with customer Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - News)
ATI shares gained 121 percent on the Nasdaq last year but have dropped about 44 percent this year.
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