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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (50862)	2/12/2013 12:50:48 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) of 78712

HY: Data from recently issued HY is scarce. And I'm not finding competitor data. Therefore, if you say the psr is super cheap I don't have any information that shows me that the number (.34,per Yahoo) is either historically low for Hyster or for Hyster vs. competitors. Hyster operates in a cyclical business. "They say" manufacturing is coming back to the USA. Maybe we're in the good spot of the cycle where manufacturing/warehousing facilities are being built back up. The analyst quoted by Barron's forecasts earnings in '13 $4.20, then in '14 at $5.00. Imo, a p/e now of 11.9 is maybe a fair multiple. So yes, not particularly a value on p/e in my view. ROE would be good at @20% or more. With no history to go by, and the company being in a cyclical business, I've only a guess and small bet that the good roe might be sustainable and/or that the company valuation will be raised further by market participants (purchasers). Apparently there's just the one analyst covering the stock and his target is $52. So I'm guessing this guy doesn't see the company now at $50 as being particularly undervalued. We both though are betting he is wrong -- at least on the price. Perhaps for different reasons.

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