SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Bilow who wrote (5083)9/9/1997 8:05:00 AM
From: tekgk   of 94695
 
>> We could start to run a trade surplus, but that's not gonna happen

Agreed - GM is not going to hit it big time in Japan, Europe is in a slump and is not going to come out soon with policies like the French have recently implemented. The third world does not have money and we will have a hard time competing with their cheaper labor.

>> let the dollar crash ...avoid this until the last possible moment

Agreed - Although any number of countries that we are exposed to could do it for us. Who's is going to be first - I know I would not want to be the last one left holding dollars. We certainly have no incentive to crash the dollar, bonds and then the stock market.

>> trading partners start their economies again, and we start >> selling them enough stuff

Not very promising either. Lester Thurrow argues that culturally Japan can not accept foreigners and foreign goods in their economy. Europe likes to trade with Europe and is in a slump that is not going to end with policies like the French have recently implemented. The rest are too small.

So what is the answer? MUDDLE until some crisis causes the foreigners to panic and dump dollars. Nobody wants to be the first to dump dollars, but neither do they want to be last. Some country will find some excuse to get out without getting the US mad or the speculators will wake up one day feeling brave and kick the whole thing off. Current account and trade deficits can't last for ever! The problem is figuring out when they will end. In any case, it will be very ugly when it happens.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News