Bob,
Something I found in another forum. I couldn't get the link to work correctly so here's the text.
Begin Quote.
Date: Mon Sep 08 1997 23:28
Puetz (bpuetz@holli.com):
RLM @ 6:54 -- Your points are well taken about the non-confirmations between blue-chip stocks and secondary stocks. In fact, this is another striking
parallel between previous crashes and the current pattern.
In 1929, the Dow Utilities were the go-go growth stocks. 3 weeks after the Industrials peaked in 1929, the Utilities were still making new highs. 6 weeks
later, the Utilities were still within a fraction of all-time highs. Then, all stocks crashed.
In 1980, when gold and silver peaked on January 21st, the speculative element of the precious metals -- platinum -- was still making new highs. Then, during
March 1980, all three metals crashed.
In 1987, the secondary stocks ( such as the NASDAQ ) came back and made a double-top 6 weeks after the DJIA peaked. Then all stocks crashed.
In 1990 in Tokyo, secondary stocks kept rallying for 6 weeks after the Nikkei had peaked. Then all Japanese crashed.
In 1997, secondary stocks ( led by the Russell 2000 and followed by the NASDAQ ) are making all-time highs 5 weeks after the DJIA and S&P peaked.
The final top ( in the 6-week topping process exhibited in prior crashes ) is nearly complete. Another day or two or three up, then watch out below. The
crash appears to be at-hand.
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It looks like most of the bears are turning into bulls these days even on this thread - be careful.
I have been out of almost all long positions since June and have had a hard time staying out of significant short positions because fundamentals are so bad. I couldn't resist a few small shorts - most have done OK except one hype stock which snagged me - Not a big deal since I am since mostly in cash, but the speed of the move taught me to respect a bull in the last days of a mania. I am still holding out waiting for the BK because I think that long positions are too dangerous and collecting interest is easier for now.
I think that this Puetz guy is correct and that the BK is just around the cornor. See you at the party and happy trading. |
