Q1 results: What analysts are saying
eetimes.com
Mark LaPedus
1/21/2011 2:06 PM EST
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- It's earnings season and a plethora of IC companies reported their results. Here's what analysts said about some of the players:
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
Analyst Doug Freedman of Gleacher & Co. (GLCH) said: AMD reported a $0.04 beat on revenue of $1.65 billion (vs. GLCH at $1.63 billion/$0.14, consensus at $1.63 billion/$0.11), which was largely in-line with our estimates. AMD guided an unbeknownst 14-week March quarter to 'flat to slightly down' which should prove to be likely better than GLCH/$1.59 billion and consensus/$1.54 billiion estimates.
Server could begin to exhibit V-shaped recovery. By 'V', we mean share gains towards and possibly near 10 percent exiting CY11, from the recent bottom of ~6.5-7 percent. While Llano is slated for market in 2Q (likely mid-Q2), management will likely be prudent to manage the volume ramp of 28-nm towards early-mid '12, giving Llano a sufficient time in market.''
Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR, said: ''AMD reported mixed 4Q results and 1Q guidance Thursday, though the firm's bungled CEO dismissal is the primary overhang on shares. While we wanted to get positive on AMD in 2011, CEO Meyer's dismissal (misguided in our opinion) leaves AMD without a leader or strategy at a critical time as it ramps integrated APU Fusion processors. With Fusion AMD’s top priority, we fail to understand how dismissing the firm’s reasonably well-executing CEO and top champion is going to ramp that product steeper.''
Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates, said: ''We see three significant challenges for AMD (Underperform) to overcome in 2011 despite the clean execution entering the year: 1) AMD likely will continue to lose server market share until Bulldozer for servers comes online in volume in 3Q/4Q, 2) AMD will likely lose significant discrete notebook GPU share to Nvidia in the Intel Sandy Bridge cycle (all of 2011), and 3) CEO uncertainty (we still don’t know why Dirk Meyers was pushed out last week).
The new CEO hire will be critical for AMD given its rather modest product roadmap vs. monumental competitive challenges and industry structural shifts. 4Q10 CPU sales were down slightly on flat units due to modest ASP declines (mix) in notebooks and servers. Graphics sales were up 9% on down q/q units and higher ASPs (average selling prices) -- sale of actual graphics cards at higher ASPs and new higher end GPUs.''
ASML Holding NV
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays, said: ''ASML's strong 4Q had been fully anticipated ahead of results, and combined with the recent capex upgrades has led to strong share performance since the company raised guidance in early December. The high level of backlog and our expectation of another good (if down) quarter of orders leaves 2011 financials largely determined. This means the key question for the shares moves to the 2012 outlook. While the understandable lack of firm guidance and visibility led to yesterday's share weakness, we expect 2012 revenue to be around 2011 levels and see reasons to be even more optimistic.''
Fairchild Semiconductor
Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR, said: ''Fairchild Semiconductor reported generally robust 4Q10 financial results and provided upside 1Q11 revenue and gross margin guidance. Management said 4Q10 demand was in line with expectations, except in computing as customers pursued greater-than-typical inventory reductions. Fairchild exited 4Q10 with eight weeks of distribution inventory, flat sequentially and an all-time low exiting any 4Q. While 4Q results were slightly below guidance midpoints, Fairchild did lower fab utilization rates to begin 2011 without any excess distribution inventory to digest.''
Linear Technology Inc.
Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR, said: ''Linear reported robust calendar 4Q10 financial results but guided 1Q11 revenues to fall 6–10 percent QOQ, a bit weaker than expected given: (1) Linear stops participating in the Apple iPad 2 later in 1Q (a three to four point revenue impact); (2) Linear's lead times fell to their normal range of four to six weeks, thereby prompting customers to de-book and lower safety stock inventory; and (3) Linear does not have a 14th week in the quarter, as it did in December.''
Maxim Integrated Products Inc.
Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR, said: ''Maxim reported upside results and guidance, somewhat reaffirming our view that the firm is gaining share in a variety of markets, is doing so very profitably, and is still growing revenues even as lead times and bookings contract, consistent with our 'soft-landing supercycle' thesis.
Synaptics Inc.
Ian Ing, an analyst with Gleacher & Co., said: ''Synaptics reported a $0.04 EPS beat through a combination of slightly more favorable revenues (up 4.2 percent), gross margins (41 percent), share count (down 1.5 percent), and tax credits (16 percent rate). Pro-forma EPS was $0.72 (vs. GLCH $0.69, Street $0.68). Strength in non-PC/Handsets (up 19 percent to 55 percent of sales) offset weakness in PCs (down 10 percent to 45 percent of sales).
Guidance was above consensus with revenue of $136 million-$146 million (down 9-15 percent to reflect seasonality off a strong comparison) and pro-forma EPS of $0.45-$0.54/share (prior GLCH $141.7 million and $0.53, consensus $135.7 million and $0.48). Full year guidance is revised from up at least 10-16 percent Y/Y to 15%-17 percent, implying the June quarter will be flat to up in the low single-digits.''
Xilinx Inc.
Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates, said: ''The street may reflexively view the inventory increase at Xilinx as a leading indicator of bad things to come, however we view as mostly a non-issue as it’s largely due to a line closure. We believe sales growth guidance (better than expected) should be viewed as a better indication for XLNX shares.
December quarter results roughly in-line with last month’s downward pre-announcement with sales of $567.2 million (-8.5 percent q/q) and EPS of $0.58 above our $0.53 estimate mostly due to a tax benefit. March quarter outlook of flat-to-up sales growth is better than our expectations.'' |
