For the record, the following is the General Commentary from Briefing.com.
<<Updated: 26-Aug-02
General Commentary
Unofficially, this is the last week of summer... Consequently, trading is apt to be light as many traders take a few days with the family before the kiddies head back to school... Naturally, light trading conditions increase potential volatility, and make it difficult to assign much meaning to the market's movement.
Nevertheless, those traders that show up this week will have plenty to digest... Aside from the ongoing debate over war with Iraq, investors face a slew of key economic data... New/Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Orders, GDP (prelim), Personal Income/Spending and Chicago PMI top the list (see Briefing.com's Economic Calendar for more details)... Traders will be monitoring data for signs that the recent slowdown was a) start of a new downward trend or b) a brief pause in an otherwise steady economic upturn... If the former, expect renewed double-dip concerns to weigh heavily on the market... If the latter, then bulls should resume control of the indices and we can close the summer on a high note.
As for technicals, signals are mixed... Many of the large-cap tech leaders are overextended... Pullbacks which began last week have not been deep enough to do any technical damage, suggesting that renewed gains are probable... Included in this group are IBM, Microsoft, Dell, Cisco and Oracle... On the other hand, the influential semiconductor group looks less promising... Several key component issues - Intel, Micron, Applied Materials, KLA-Tencor, Novellus - rolled over after failing at key resistance levels... Unless these stocks right themselves but quick, semiconductor group will be in for some rough sledding... And if the semiconductor stocks stumble, it will be very difficult for rest of techs to ignore.
Given the scope of the recent advance, the troubling technical tone of the influential semiconductor group and the potential for disappointment from the economic data, maybe the best move is to take some profits, enjoy the last week of summer and forget about the market for a few days.
Robert Walberg>> |
