Peak Oil theory is an overly simplistic model based on flawed logic and extrapolation of current trends in a static environment rather than a real world dynamic.
Problem is, simple models work....
I believe Yergin made the statement that this is the fifth time that the world has run out of oil, after four previous "crises." Interstingly enough, there are four large discrete producing regions that have shown lower production after crossing the 50% of Qt mark using the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method--the Lower 48; Russia; North Sea and Mexico.
Khebab has mathematically modeled (using only production data through the 50% mark) the post-50% of Qt production for the Lower 48 and Russia. For the Lower 48, the cumulative production through 2004 was 99% of what the HL model predicted it would be. For Russia, the cumulative production through 2004 was 95% of what the HL model predicted it would be.
The North Sea peaked in 1999, after crossing the 50% of Qt mark (crude + condensate). Mexico just peaked this year, after crossing the 50% of Qt mark.
The world is just past the 50% of Qt mark for crude + condensate, and right at the 50% of Qt mark for crude + condensate + NGL's. Both measures of "oil" are showing lower production relative to late 2005. In other words, the world is showing the same type of production response that four large producing regions have shown, at about the same stage of depletion.
Then there are the big four super giant oil fields that are, or were, producing one mbpd or more--Ghawar; Cantarall; Burgan and Daqing. Assuming that Ghawar is in decline--a reasonable assumption IMO--all four of these super giants are either in decline or crashing. The only possible super giant on the horizon is the Kashagan Field that, at best, won't start producing until 2010, and won't reach peak production until 2020, when it is expected to peak at just a little more than one mbpd.
westexas on Tuesday November 14, 2006 at 9:32 PM EST
Back from TOD Retirement, at least briefly
BTW, I left Saudi Arabia off my list of large producing regions/countries now in decline, after crossing into the second half of Qt.
energybulletin.net
Published on 24 May 2006 by GraphOilogy. Archived on 25 May 2006.
Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world
by Jeffrey J. Brown & "Khebab"
In summary, based on the HL method and based on our historical models, we believe that Saudi Arabia and the world are now on the verge of irreversible declines in conventional oil production. While there will be massive efforts directed toward unconventional sources of oil, we predict that unconventional sources of oil will only serve to slow and not reverse the decline in total world oil production.
westexas on Wednesday November 15, 2006 at 8:01 AM EST
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AlanfromBigEasy on Tuesday November 14, 2006 at 8:55 PM EST
In the absence of WesTexas I will point out the situation in Texas in 1972.
A new record oil production that year.
In the next 10 years:
Oil prices increase by x10
A surge of new technology driven by sky high prices
Massive new drilling, a record.
Only 14% more producing oil wells despite massive efforts.
And -30% less oil produced in 1982 than in 1972.
Alan
theoildrum.com |
