Analysis: War fever grips Middle East
Heated words, troop and arms buildup make region tense
Peter Goodspeed, National Post
Published: Wednesday, April 16, 2008
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As the world's leading powers met in Shanghai Wednesday to discuss ways to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program, Israel and Iran were exchanging threats of war; Syria was marshalling its army near the Golan Heights; Hamas was attacking Israeli troops along the Gaza Strip; and Hezbollah was muttering about avenging the assassination two months ago of its top military commander.
Spring in the Middle East frequently raises fears of war. This year war fever is intense.
According to the Qatari newspaper al-Watan, political and media sources in Syria believe war may break out with Israel in late May or early June.
The two countries last week conducted civil-defence drills predicated on a summer war, and Syria's military has been conducting manoeuvres along its border with Lebanon and Israel. Reservists have been called up and Syrian troops are said to be strung along a continuous crescent-shaped line from the central Lebanese mountains to the Israeli-held Golan Heights.
Some speculate the Syrian deployment may be a defensive move designed to discourage an Israeli counterattack if Hezbollah launches a revenge attack on Israel for the Feb. 12 assassination in Damascus of Imad Mughniyeh.
A master terrorist, Mughniyeh was killed in a car bombing that Hezbollah immediately blamed on Israel. Israel refuses to discuss the case, insisting it had nothing to do with the killing. But Syria is expected to release the results of its own investigation into the attack any day now.
The London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper reports Syria has raised the alert level along its borders and positioned three armoured divisions, nine infantry brigades and special forces near Lebanon's Bekaa Valley to discourage a possible Israeli attack against Hezbollah.
As the Syrian troop buildup took place last week, Israel launched a five-day national emergency defence drill that tested responses to the strategy Israeli military planners fear most -- a massive rocket barrage aimed at Israel's cities.
Hamas and Hezbollah are said to be stocking up on Qassam and Katyusha rockets, raising the threat of Israel being forced to endure simultaneous attacks from southern Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, while dealing with larger military threats from Syria and Iran.
Hamas has staged almost daily rocket attacks on the Israeli town of Sderot and yesterday ambushed and killed three Israeli soldiers along the border with Gaza in a raid that recalled events leading up to the 2006 Lebanon war.
Lurking in the background of any potential conflict lies a growing existential struggle between Israel and Iran.
This morning, Iran will stage the largest flypast in its history as the Iranian air force puts 140 war planes into the air over Tehran to mark Iranian Army Day.
The military display, intended to "reveal the power of the Iranian armed forces to defend their homeland," follows a week long exchange between Israel and Iran in which each side threatened to destroy the other.
Last week, Israel's National Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer warned that an Iranian attack against his country "would lead to the destruction of the Iranian nation."
The deputy commander of Iran's army, Brigadier General Muhammad Ashtiani responded on Tuesday, saying Iran would "eliminate Israel from the global arena" if it is ever attacked.
Gen. Ashtiani said the Iranian army is on constant alert due to the presence of "foreign forces" in the region.
"It is ready to decisively repel any attack," he said, adding menacingly that Israel's location is "easily accessible" -- a reference to reports Iran is developing a ballistic missile with a range of up to 6,000 kilometres.
The General's remarks came just days after the Iranian President announced Iran is installing 6,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium, which, if highly refined, can be used to make nuclear weapons.
Iran's apparent quest for nuclear weapons has set the Middle East on edge, with both Israel and the United States studying the possibility of pre-emptive military strikes to destroy the nuclear program.
At the same time, the United States agreed this week to let Israel connect to its Ballistic Missile Early Warning radar system in anticipation of a possible Iranian attack. Israel has been plugged into the system just twice before -- in 1991, before the Gulf War, and in 2003, before the invasion of Iraq.
In the meantime, the world's leading powers are trying to force Tehran to comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty through a combination of sanctions and incentives. Yesterday's meeting in Shanghai was designed to review three rounds of limited sanctions that have been imposed on Iran by the United Nations Security Council.
While China and Russia are pushing for more incentives to get Iran to give up sensitive nuclear work, the United States believes Iran is determined to build a nuclear bomb.
Iran's war of words with Israel and the confrontations over its nuclear program come as U.S. military leaders are publicly blaming Iran for fuelling the latest round of fighting in southern Iraq between the Iraqi government and the insurgent Mahdi Army.
General David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, recently told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that "special groups that are funded, trained, armed and directed by Iran's Quds Force with help from Lebanese Hezbollah" are responsible for killing hundreds of U.S. soldiers and thousands of Iraqi soldiers and civilians.
"Unchecked, the ‘special groups' pose the greatest long-term threat to the viability of a democratic Iraq," Gen. Petraeus testified.
A few days later, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell expanded on Gen. Petraeus's comments.
"Lord knows we found stashes and stashes of weapons in Basra a couple of weeks ago that were clearly provided by the Iranians," he said. "And the Lord knows that the rockets and missiles that have been falling upon the Green Zone, attacking and killing not just U.S. personnel there but Iraqis, those were provided by the Iranians."
Adding an extra touch of tension, Israel's Deputy Chief of Staff, Major General Dan Harel, has warned Israel's potential enemies:"Anyone who tries to harm Israel needs to keep in mind that Israel is the most powerful country in the region and its response will be hard and painful."
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