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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (51027)9/13/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: double-plus-good   of 95453
 
Jim,

I got into PETD for two and change some time ago, knowing full well that the stock was a slow but steady mover. They have a very impressive track record which is partially dependent on their risk management practice of securing partnerships for their drilling program. This makes them a very solid and solvent player to ride out in bad times but also limits the explosive possibilities of a leveraged producer.

I made a call to IR about two or three months ago at which time a very savvy folk at their gas marketing arm laid out the bare-bones of their hedging plans. At that time Appalachian gas was south of 2.50 and the folk i spoke with indicated no hedges for summer production yet, though as much as half of summer production might be hedged if 2.75 was reached. I was also led to believe that the company saw the same price spike as has been discussed here for coming months and was very reluctant to hedge south of what could be some real dramatic upside in prices. Dated information for sure, but enough for me to double down at 4 3/8 and add again on the slump after earnings.

FWIW i am looking for something near 8 per share which is at the top range of their historical chart. Not a barn-burner, but their gas is to my knowledge unhedged, not at risk of interruption by hurricane, near the metropolitan and high priced markets and unencumbered by debt. All good reasons for me to find some room for PETD shares.

IIR is one of my very old service stock investments. Like MIND, its got the stuff that's made for active bidding in a market that will see further consolidation. My heart goes out to the service company ceo's that were itching for the next leg down before they went on their buying binge. Hats off to WFT which did a masterful job of timing their acquisitions. One has to wonder what DO will do with all their cash horde. It appears they mussed their timing up a tad.

I spent some of the weekend researching PN and an as yet unnamed enp. I think PN has the stuff that some majors would really like to dig into. Their registration filing is a good read, and while the offering will dilute and the market cap appears to exceed the proved reserves by a healthy margin, their very aggressive drilling program and perfect success ratio combined with a lot of undrilled and promising acreage suggests that this will be a pony to ride during this cycle.

i'm still sussin' out the other play which is pure bottom-feeder meat more akin to my style. could be a very short-term near triple. more on that later.

and oh yeah...BOOM BOOM, FALCON SPREAD THOSE WINGS

++good
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