I'm curious about the logic driving the assumption that just because ASND buys SRA, LU won't buy ASND. Or, to put it more precisely, that the SRA/ASND rumor takes the premium out of the LU/ASND rumor (over more than the very short term).
It would seem to me that:
1. The LU/ASND buyout, while perhaps likely, is by no means guaranteed. It would be short-sighted for ASND to, in the meantime, not position itself for the future by making whatever strategic acquisitions it deemed necessary (whether SRA would be a good acquisition is, of course, another issue altogether). Thus, any acquisitions by ASND, while not exactly hanging a "FOR SALE" sign on the door, don't do much to preclude its future acquisition.
2. If ASND did buy SRA, this does not change the fact that it is widely perceived that LU still must make a major acquisition in the data networking field. Wouldn't ASND, even an ASND with SRA, still be one of the best, if not *the* best possible fit for LU? After all, LU could still spin off parts of SRA if necessary -- what's a few hundred million these days, anyways?
These two things suggest to me that we'll see the takeover premium rebuild itself into the stock price, whether or not these rumors are true. Personally, I'd buy ASND on its current fundamentals, no matter what I thought of the takeover prospects.
DL |
