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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (5100)9/9/1997 5:53:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen   of 94695
 
GZ,
The Bundesbank is clearly one of the major wild cards in a stronger dollar scenario. One thing that could upset the strong dollar outlook would be for EMU to be delayed or established narrowly on very strict criteria. There are only three entities still pushing for this; the Bundesbank, the German Constitutional Court or a faction within Kohl's party that is positioning for the next election. The Bundesbank has the clearest brief to act on this and bears close watching. The court will need someone to break a case and it is there is a big question as to how they could force adherence to a strict interpretation. The internal wrangling of Kohl's coalition is hard to call but watch for a man named Stoiber. But in short anything that delays or toughens EMU would cause the deutschmark to strengthen vs the dollar

Against the Asian currencies, a strong pick up in Japan or a quick turn around and come back by the Tigers would forestall dollar strength.
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