MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (5108)	10/20/2000 6:58:56 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) of 19219

JT - CBOE PCR You could see a chart at stockcharts.com[L,A]DBLANNMY[DC][PB10!B21!A.4!A.7!A.75][I] (intradays will be available soon). Bullish signs: 10 DMA curve is flat and above .75 overly bearish level. 21 DMA curve also flat, also above it's .7 overly bearish level. equities only PCR quote.com ticker PUTCALL, 21 DMA also flat all indexes PCR (also on quote.com) ticker PUTCALL.OEX (not contrarian) was flat on Oct 11, turned really positive Tuesday. I interpret these as follows: - big houses have built there inventory, and now start hedging their assets (buying puts again). - non-pro's (including funds) were overly bearish and still are (equities PCR .55 and above) 10 and 21 DMA reverse trend: in a first phase, they would buy less puts as market recovers. When (if) those averages will near .55, this would indicate that non-pros are running out of dry powder and start buying calls -> exhaustion rally (but this one lasted through Nov and Dec last year). End of that exhaustion rally will be seen on the all indexes PCR, when it's 21 DMA will reverse from high levels. Oops, long ranting. Time now to learn to spot sector rotations in the indexes.

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