America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: Ricardo Bekin who wrote (5098)	10/19/1997 8:11:00 AM
From: John Kratus	of 13594

AOL today reminds me of Ascend Communications when it was in the high 70s and 80s. Here is a profile of Ascend at its peak: institutional ownership 80% reiterated buy recommendations almost daily WS loved management, despite frequent insider sales of stock concerns about growth slowing or new competition were ignored Today ASND is in the mid-30s, sell recommendations come almost daily, management is mistrusted, and WS focuses on competition from Cisco and 3Com. Interestingly, it wasn't that WS turned against ASND and then it went down. Instead ASND went down and then WS turned against it. Once the stock stumbled, there was a rush for the exits, and analysts had to then provide plausible reasons for the slide. AOL is at a point today similar to ASND at its high. Everyone (meaning every institution) who wants the stock already owns it. How much of the AOL story is unknown by investors? My guess is that AOL is near the top. Patience on the short side will be rewarded. John

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