This author is a Retired US Special Forces Colonel, with significant expertise in and about Burma.
Southeast Asia is destined to become geopolitically important once again, as we plan for and continue to relocate military forces to the region.
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Super Power Suicide: How America is getting it wrong in Burma
After dubious performances in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the US Government under President Obama is once again rigidly sticking with its old formula in Burma as this country attempts to reform after decades of internal conflict. By all appearances the President scarcely imagines how much is at stake in this region that most Americans no little if anything about. At issue here is America’s future super power stature that will be either proven or disproved before the world on the stage of Burma. Obama is taking America on the wrong path now.
The US Government under George W. Bush consciously cast a blind eye to the unambiguous reality of strong, armed multi-ethnic societies in both Iraq and Afghanistan, in favor of promoting strong central governments and armies. Some would say this has been a bit of a disaster. Others would say the disaster has been absolute. Whatever one’s opinion, the attempted marginalization of ethnic power brokers in Southwest Asia has certainly cost America and its allies dearly in many respects. America backed its poster children Presidents Chalabi in Iraq and Kharzai in Afghanistan, both of whom were not representative of the people, and each of whom has been clearly exposed for corruption and dubious agendas.
That said, they were America’s boys whatever their failings, which have proved to be enormous, and the US Government proceeded to back them. This was done while concurrently marginalizing ethnic power brokers who essentially owned much of the country through the allegiances of blocks of ethnic peoples. The issue here is that by focusing on the empowerment of strong central governments and armed forces, America was going against the very nature of these multi-ethnic societies. Politics, economics and military might are decentralized in such societies, because these ethnics have never identified with central governments. The need was and is for "balance of power" among decentralized power brokers. Chalabi faded fast and Kharzai is now know only as “the Mayor of Kabul”, and then only during daylight hours. All countries in the region are now in a countdown to his eventual demise. America picked wrong and got it mostly wrong in both places, as neither Iraq or Afghanistan has evolved as an enduring American ally.
If it were not for America’s track record of misreading the will of the people in places like Vietnam, misunderstanding local realities as in Somalia, while backing a host of questionable central government leaders in other countries, then one might not need to be concerned. But the track record of the US Government reading the people wrong in favor of backing a broad range of questionable central government leaders is compelling. This is, after all, the traditional nation state diplomacy model used by many nation states.
The problem is that the world has changed drastically and the reality today is that the voice and will of the people matter. As the world has witnessed across North Africa and parts of the Middle East, people who have been long oppressed “will have their day”. Society today cannot afford any losers, as the little man armed with social media and unconventional warfare methods has proven again and again that he can rock society to its core. Nothing could be more convincing of this fact than the lone Tunisian vendor who set himself aflame in protest of long-standing government oppression and, in so doing, both ignited and inspired other “little men” to stand up and be counted. That flame is very much alive today in Burma.
So fast forward now to Burma, where President Obama has chosen to once again pursue the tradition of state-to-state diplomacy and is now well under way in lifting sanctions in spite of the facts. Once again we are seeing the old tradition of “Don’t bother me with the facts about ethnic minorities and traditional power brokers”. The Obama Administration now proceeds at flank speed to engage and empower yet another unproven central government and army not representative of the people. Nothing could be worse. This administration has been wooed and wowed with a mix of reformist rhetoric and sincere gestures, but not substantive reform by Burma’s President Thein Sein. It has engaged Thein Sein and embraced Aung San Suu Kyi under the mistaken presumption that these two figures are the sovereign panacea for what ails Burma. Nothing could be further from the truth, because Obama has chosen to ignore the truth about the primal importance of ethnic minorities in Burma.
The facts are compelling: (1) Ethnics comprise up to 50% of Burma’s total population, a fact that past Burmese regimes have masked by counting anyone who was Buddhist as Burman. Ethnics are anything but a minority. (2) Ethnic ancestral lands stolen by the Burmese Army comprise the majority of Burma’s natural resource wealth that has kept past and present governments in power. (3) Ethnics’ lands cover most of Burma’s borders and access to international trade routes. (4) Ethnic freedom fighters have historically killed Burmese armed forces at up to 100:1 ratios driven by ethnics’ determination to protect their villagers from the Burmese Army’s decades’-long scorched earth campaign. (5) Burmese Government has avoided accountability for long-substantiated crimes against humanity that made Burma one of the worst human rights situations in the world. (6) The present Burmese Government does not have control of Burmese generals and the Burmese Army. This army now attacks Kachin villagers with over 120 battalions even as Obama’s Defense Department officials meet with Burmese Defense Ministry officials discussing the prospect of future cooperation. It is significant to note that the Kachin were America’s most faithful ally in Burma throughout World War II, while the Burmese sided with the Japanese. Obama’s stance is morally bankrupt for anyone who would honor old mates who died at the side of American GIs, but who never got freedom themselves.
It is not possible for America to sustain Super Power stature in this context. In the 21st Century true stature worthy of respect and allegiance is to be measured by taking high moral stands. In today's Information Age Obama can run, but he cannot hide from this fact. As the present leader of the United States of America, he has fallen conspicuously short of the high calling of the American people, whose standard has always been to help the oppressed. His administration has marginalized ethnic leaders and their peoples in Burma, while concurrently embracing Burmans in power, reformist and old guard alike. There is no honor in this and without honor American Super Power status is hollow and will be increasingly see as such by all the world.
As Abraham Lincoln once said: “You can fool some of the people part of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” President Obama’s turning a blind eye to ethnic facts today in Burma may fool Americans, but it is not fooling lots of other people around the world, who are watching America’s next moves in Burma. America’s Super Power stature is clearly on the line here.
Tim Heinemann is a retired US Army officer, who was a strategic planner for the post-hostilities phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom. As a humanitarian volunteer he has been advising the major pro-democracy ethnic political-military alliance in Burma.
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