Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: reaper who wrote (5130)	8/24/2002 2:25:22 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	of 89467

with more deflation and more recession, 10yr yield could drop I think UBS Warburg was making a shorterm call like a 10yr yield rising to 4.4% or 4.5% after that, we could see more bond rallies esp with a panic in stocks I am beginning to think June2003 TNX put contracts would be great here these play off the TNX, which is 10x the 10yr yield e.g. a 10yr TNote yield of 4.27% would make TNX=42.7 a June03 put with 40 strike would triple if yield went to 3.85% by late Sept these Treasury option puts & calls trade with strong volume they contain almost as much leverage as futures contracts but with a tough expiration feature perhaps a combo of long golds and option shorts on TNX we could see the big gold gains only after a stock collapse illiquidity comes with risks for all things financial including gold miner stocks the main risk I see with expecting still lower Trez yields is a wider foreign selling spree of USTrez securities / jim

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