i don't see what csco can do to really compete with nt and lu. i've got lu's press release:
biz.yahoo.com
they announce the world's first high capacity all-optical router -- moving 10 time today's internet traffic. first. so they've got it ringed with patents; and they're over 2000 patents deep in optical tech, not counting all their other patents. now what can csco do about that? csco has to convert the optical signals to electrical form, for God's sake. lu says they're gonna save providers 25% in operational costs; and direct traffic 16 times faster than electrical (csco) switches.
this optical router carries frame relay traffic at OC-192;
that's 10 billion bits a second: 400% increase over today's.
this is really big time. so far ahead it's no contest.
lab to market in 15 months.
now here's another device lu has that carries data at 10-Gbit/s: wavestar opticair, goes the last mile photonically
to coin a word: light waves through the air, point to point,
no cables to lay, no radio frequencies to apply for or buy, just install the equipment and send. goes 5km - now
has some limitations vs wireless, light can't penetrate material, as far as i know. globalcrossing's gonna test it this month. lab to market in 18 months.
and i've run out of time to talk about nortel.
csco is a group of brilliant people, with an enormous current revenue, but i think they have a long row to hoe to get the kind of future position they have now.
i am long nortel, longer lu, not short csco. |
