America doesn't have the only lone hand. In fact, Iran's hand is in many ways stronger than ours. They aren't playing it yet, because they don't have to - the Sunnis are doing the bully work for them, and they have no incentive to make a mess.
The Iranians will try to use their influence with the Shiite community - and the factionalism of the other communities - to get a government sympathetic to them elected. If we support a free election, which we must, it will be hard for us to stop them.
If they achieve this, we are toast, becasue if an elected government tells us to go away, we have to do it.
The problems don't end with an election. The problems begin with an election. Up until now, we could dictate. After June 30, we can't dictate, but we have so much leverage that it will be difficult to resist us. Once there's an election, our influence drops way, way off. |
