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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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From: quehubo10/20/2005 8:53:16 PM
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For better or worse a bet that the market had it wrong this time pushed me across my line in the sand. Uncertainty about which side of the post Katrita supply demand balance would prevail into the Winter appears to be driving the markets down.

At 10:30:30 I puked down to 20% loaded and I may take a few options in case this is a REFCO deal. But I dont believe it. I have not a clue WTF is going on in the energy markets now and this tells me 90% of the institutions selling these stocks know less and are going to sell until the situation improves.

My bet has been that the reduced supply would dominate the scene and this was supported by high prices and relatively weak and understandable injections.

Now we have some refineries back and injections that are getting very hard to discount.

We have electric demand higher than last year.

We have weather forecasts that predict warm weather through year end, hell it has been steadily above normal for over 7 months what is another 2 months?

Now I could be the perfect contrary indicator, but with oil inventories very uncertain and not a good draw from NG storage in sight for weeks, what is going to power these stocks way up from here?

There is a chance some impacted demand wont come back until prices are much lower where they were before Katrita arrived,

there is a chance that impacted demand could return at a slower pace than gas supply,

there is a chance that just as much demand has been lost for good as ng supply from the GOM,

there is a very good chance that we have warm weather right into January as forecasted by one prominent forecaster, this would give us injections well into November based on today's data,

I am betting that the economic sentiment does not support much enthusiasm for energy for the remainder of the year,

that weather is bearish between now and the end of the year,

that ng storage action is not supportive for most of the remainder of the year.

If the weather improves and storage action looks better I will be ready
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