The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding

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To: Snowshoe who wrote (4966)	4/8/2020 1:36:25 AM
From: elmatador	of 13801

Hi Snow ! On South Korea's situation offers a warning The western markets are the Asian customers. Asia will only go up, once the western economies restart importing. Why? Because an exporting country cannot produce its profits at home. It needs to export goods and import its profits. Since I am at it. The prophets of doom, like Nouriel Roubini, think in TJ's terms. That there will be an event when the economy just vanishes. Analysts like these forget that there is a basic economy that is indestructible: What people need day by day plus replenishing what worn out. A total lockdown, is not what the above. This is an artificial slow down because people do not do the basic things they have to do. Examples of deferred businesses that are impacting the economy: Those 4 new tires for you car that you planned to replace as soon as snow tires season ends, will not be done. The visit to dentist of your brother? Postponed. That splash birthday party of you nephew? Not happens. The spring maintenance of your home heating system will be postponed to August too. My new apartment's fiber to the home connection? Postponed. All that means that what people need day by day is not happening. My trip to Brazil, planned for April/May? Postponed. Business gets clogged out. Our business trip to Namibia to close one deal and advance another? Postponed to Summer. April is a month when the Purchase Orders are out and the Financial Year begins. Not happening. As the economy reopens, the usual human activities jumpstarts and money once again start to change hands. First timidly. Then takes off real good. By Fall, the journalists, by lack of anything useful to do, start writing and talking about a Covid 2.0 and it will affect negatively the economy once again. By the winter 2021/2022 the fear factor has been gone.

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