US Data Week Ahead: Data Blizzard: 4Q GDP, ECI, Durables
27 Jan 07:30
By John McAuley
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The data flow in the coming week is as heavy as it was
light in the prior week.
Durable Good Orders To Record Partial Rebound
Economists look for a partial rebound in new orders for durable goods in
December after a 1.5% decline in the prior month.
Economists' forecasts center on a 0.6% increase in durable good orders in
December.
The Commerce Department is due to release the durable goods report at 8:30
a.m. EST (1330 GMT) Tuesday.
Although he is close to the consensus in his overall forecast of a 0.5%
increase, Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist of the Royal Bank of Scotland in New
York, notes that "excluding the volatile swing categories of defense and
aircraft, we expect December durable good orders to be fairly weak."
Real GDP Growth Slows Again In Fourth Quarter
Continuing the fast-slow, fast-slow growth pattern seen in 2002, real gross
domestic product growth is expected to have slowed in the fourth quarter.
Economists generally expect a slowdown to a 0.6% annual rate of GDP growth in
the fourth quarter from 4.0% in the third quarter.
The Commerce Department is due to release the fourth quarter GDP report at
8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) Thursday.
"Preliminary estimates of fourth quarter GDP will show little, if any,
growth," according to the economics team at Goldman Sachs in New York, which
looks for a 0.5% real growth rate.
Employment Cost Index Up 0.9%
Economists look for a slight pickup in the rate of increase in the employment
cost index in the three months ending in December.
The ECI is expected to increase by 0.9% in the fourth quarter compared with a
0.8% gain in the third quarter.
The Labor Department is due to report on the ECI at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT)
Thursday.
"We look for a 0.9% increase in the employment cost index as increasing
benefit costs, driven by healthcare expenses, were likely offset by subdued
wage growth," noted Mickey levy, chief economist at Banc of America Securities
in New York. "Soft labor markets and declining inflation tempered wage gains in
2002; they decelerated to a 2.1% four-quarter rise, weakest since 1995. Benefit
costs still rose 4.9%."
Other Data
The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to report on existing home
sales in December at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) Monday. Economists' estimates
focus on a 1.4% increase to an annual rate of 5.64 million homes.
Economists look for a 4.1% decline in new home sales to an annual rate of
1,025,000 in December. The Commerce Department is due to release the new home
sales report at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) Tuesday.
The Conference Board is due to release its consumer confidence index for
January at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) Tuesday. Economists look for a decline to
78.5 from 80.3 in December.
Economists look for a 4,000 increase in initial jobless claims to 385,000 in
the week ended Jan. 25, beginning to stabilize following the turn-of-the-year
seasonal adjustment problems that many economists believe had been complicating
the data pattern in recent weeks. The Labor Department is due to release the
jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) Thursday.
The Commerce Department is due to release the personal income and spending
report for December at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) Friday. Economists look for a
0.2% increase in income but a strong 0.8% increase in spending reflecting
strong auto sales.
The University of Michigan is due to release its final report on consumer
sentiments to subscribers only around 9:45 a.m. EST (1445 GMT) Friday.
Economists who forecast this measure look for the index to be unchanged from
the final December reading of 83.8.
The Chicago purchasing managers association is due to release its
manufacturing index for January at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) Friday.
Economists' forecasts are focused on a modest increase to 52.2 from 51.3 in
December.
By John McAuley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4425; john.mcauley@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-27-03 0730ET |
