Howard, I haven't missed the movement in the polls -- the Consolidated lead is down to 3.6% in favor of Bush. Based on 6000 voters, this is a significant move in the past day. I think the race is tightening.
You are correct -- the questions are different, the days are not entirely aligned. The point of my Consolidation is to eliminate the volatility of the individual polls and create something that has meaning if it starts moving. For the first time, there is movement in the consolidation, toward Gore. I view this as significant given that it arises from interviews with almost 6000 voters (versus 750 or so for Gallup, which jumps around like crazy).
In the case of Congress and the stock market -- clearly the stock market's rise in 1994-1996 didn't produce the Republican Congressional victory in 1994. The Republicans won, then the market took off.
Your final point is one I've made several times -- we've had DIVIDED government for the past 6 years, and the result has been an economic boom. Divided government means MODERATE government.
But if we want to continue moderate government, who should we vote for? If Gore is elected and Democrats take over the House, we will move in a sharply more liberal direction -- anti-business, increased spending, etc. This will be a clear break from the Government we've had in the past 6 years. In my view, electing Bush is more likely to continue moderate government, whether Democrats or Republicans rule the House.
Kevin/fuzzymath |
