We are waiting for them to publish the results of a feasibility study for the Messina PGM mine in South Africa, they are buying from Implats. This has been delayed until the South African mine minister signs off on the mine application. SUF got screwed by De Beers a few years ago on the M1 pipe at this stage, so they are waiting for all approvals of the development before they announce the final numbers and plan. Original estimates indicated Messina could generate $1.00 per share bottom line eps or more, depending on the percentage ownership they get in Messina (minimum 54%).
We are also awaiting final cost and revenue estimates for Klipspringer fissure mine (100% SUF owned). Original estimates called for about $US25 gross profit per tonne of mined ore, which could, depending on processing rate add up to another $1.00 per share bottom line eps to SUF. This eps would require all of the present production capacity installed at Klipspringer, which could happen when M1 is mined out in about a year.
I should point out that $2.00 eps is what Dia Met mines is projected to do next year, and their share price is $22.00+ dollars at the present time with slightly more shares outstanding than SUF. I believe their exploration programs to be equally prospective for new discoveries, so the earnings could be a good gauge on eventual shareholder sentiment once SUF starts announcing project results and plans in the first few months of 2000 and credibility rises.
SUF does suffer with a credibility problem at the present time with "existing" shareholders. The interesting thing is that many "existing" shareholders have jumped in the last 6 months, and many new knowledgeable shareholders have jumped on board. Tax loss selling for stocks that have dropped this year in North America (about 60% of all stocks listed) has been described as brutal in the press recently,...worse than in any other year it is thought. That accounts for a lot of the pressure on SUF share price presently (the share price was in the $9.00 range last January), as people seek to diminish capital gains with capital losses.
The future looks good, but nothing in mining is ever guaranteed. SUF management is credible and competent in my opinion. They have suffered with a lot of bad luck, and dashed hopes in the last few years, but I believe that is about to change in the new millennium.
Good luck to us all, and Season Greetings and best wishes to all exploration nuts, financial eggheads, and SUFfering shareholders and hamsters! |
