Here's a gloomy assessment of Kerry's chances by The Irish Trojan (interesting nom de blog...conjures up the image of a big beefy red-haired guy playing soccer, or whatever they play over there..:-) If Saddam Hussein's trial isn't for months, however, it may not be in time to help Bush.)
Panic!!
Posted on June 29, 2004 at 12:00 PM Mountain Standard Time
Categories: News: Election 2004
"Dem Panic, anyone?" Mickey Kaus asks, as he notes that John Kerry's head-to-head standing against George W. Bush has dropped seven points in the last month, according to New York Times/CBS polls. This despite Bush's dismal 42% approval rating and 36% favorability rating. So how can Kerry be doing so poorly? Because his ratings are plummeting as well: more people now view him unfavorably (39%) than view him favorably (29%). This is beginning to resemble the 2002 California governor's race between Gray Davis and Bill Simon -- voters really hate both candidates!
So, why "Dem Panic" specifically, instead of general national panic? Well, for one thing, the question must be asked, why are Kerry's numbers dropping? He's taken a big dive in the past month -- but why? Bush's negative ads have lessened of late, as the campaign sits on some of its money for the moment. Hell, we went through a period of non-campaigning just a couple weeks back, after Reagan died. And most of the news focus has been on Iraq. Overall, this has been essentially a politically dead month, except for all the Clinton crap. Could it be that "Clinton fatigue" is weighing Kerry down? Or is it just slowly sinking in with the public that, hey, this guy isn't very good? I suspect the latter -- and that doesn't bode well at all.
We also have to consider the 32% of the public that still doesn't know enough about John Kerry to have an opinion, favorable or unfavorable. How do you think those voters will feel if their big introduction to Kerry is the Democratic convention -- an event which, as mentioned earlier, seems certain to be dominated by the likes of Howard Dean, Ted Kennedy, and Al "Digital Brownshirt" Gore? And what will happen once these undecided voters, in the wake of the Boston fiasco, join the ranks of the unfavorables? Does anyone honestly believe Bush's ratings are going to fall further?
All the external factors seem to point in Bush's favor: the economy is improving, gas prices are finally falling, and the transfer of sovereignty in Iraq seems likely to shift the terrorists' focus away from American targets and more toward the Iraqi "collaborators" who now hold power and will soon commence cracking down hard on the insurgency. That should mean fewer American deaths, which (let's be honest here) is all that the public really cares about. Meanwhile, with Ahnold and Rudy facing off against Algore and Teddy, the conventions seem certain to help the Republicans, as discussed earlier. Then we have the two great festivals of patriotism, the Olympics and the 9/11 commemorations, both of which seem likely to put the country in a mood that's much more favorable to Bush's Gipperesque optimism rather than the Kerry/Gephardt(?) ticket's miserable-failure-ism. And then, just as that GOP-friendly period begins to wrap up, just when Bush has finished building a double-digit lead in the polls, whoosh!, the trials of Kobe Bryant and Michael Jackson begin (on Aug. 27 and Sept. 13, respectively), and everyone stops paying attention to politics altogether and starts watching the new "Trials of the Century" instead. John Kerry could run through the Rose Garden naked, but no one would notice, as they'll be too glued to Court TV. Next thing you know, it'll be October, the election will be fast approaching, the horse-race coverage will self-fulfillingly prophesy a Bush landslide, and voila, John Kerry will have become Bob Dole.
Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to lose. Not because Bush is unbeatable -- because we have a crappy candidate who can do no better than tying Bush when he's at his absolute low-point.
This is all Iowa's fault.
[Save us, O White Knight! -ed.]
P.S. For the record, I hope John Kerry doesn't run naked through the Rose Garden. That wouldn't be a pretty sight.
UPDATE: Mike G., referred here by InstaPundit (thanks, Glenn!), makes an excellent point, reminding me of another, rather important criminal trial that I forgot to mention, one which will also probably be happening this fall: the trial of Saddam Hussein. That, too, will help Bush. Man... the deck really is stacked against Kerry.
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