In 3 weeks we should know more when we get the earnings report and conference call. It would seem that there will be a lot of expectations for answers on where things stand and they'll have to give revenue figures which will give some indications of sales.
So far, subscribers were ahead of expectations in the last quarter. Now, we will see what the churn rate might be as people may or may not be disappointed with the system, or at least not find it worth the price. We shall see.
I also feel that the market in general will be getting harder and harder for picking winners from here. The fact that GMGC has joined many others with falling prices should be no surprise. Since mid January, I find my holdings have dropped at least 20%. We've had one of those stealth corrections again. When does it stop?
But, looking on the bright side, what is the bottom for this stock? It would seem that a deal with Qwest, Microsoft and Intuit along with a small subscriber base on Portico would constitute a valid business even if nothing more were to happen.
What's the downside risk? I had said to myself I would buy again at 4 1/2, but bought a small number of shares at 6 1/4 because of the WirelessKnowledge announcement. Well, it would seem like 4 1/2 is still a likely target and probably a very good short term trade.
Any guesses on the number of subscribers for Portico? I would guess they are averaging at least $50 a month for service now. Still, say the number was 20,000 this would only be one million per month. That wouldn't excite anyone.
Regards,
Mark |
