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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 48.59

-1.3%

Feb 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (5226)	11/14/1996 8:22:00 PM
From: Robert G. Bianchi	of 186894

Fred, Times are a chang'in. Up to this point Cyrix has been the only Pentium competitor. With their small fabrication capacity and Intel's strong arm sales tatics Intel has been able to increase market share and sales volume. Even though they do not have the fastest Pentium Processor. With AMD's announcement of sampling the K6 to key customers and Cyrix's impending announcement of the same. Both companies are expected to introduce MMX enabled processor chips that most likely out perform even the Pentium Pro on both 16-bit and 32-bit applications. The best news is that you don't have to throw-out your old pentium motherboard for the new technology. AMD has indicated that their chip die size is 155 sq.mm (about half the size of a Pentium Pro implemented with 0.35 micron process). Cyrix has indicated that their M2 die size is under 200 sq.mm. With AMD's FAB 25 capacity, and a potential hit in the K6, Intel will no longer be a no brainer. AMD's ability to produce a high performance processor is questionable. They have had a long time for the K6 and they no doubt got some good talent when they purchased NexGen. When the public gets to see some significantly faster processors from "Intel Not Inside", things aren't going to be so automatic. It should be very interesting over the next 3 months. This is nothing like the situation when AMD stumbled and Cyrix was the only other game in town. Tier 1 accounts respect a company with their own Fab and AMD is a highly regarded manufacturer of semiconductors. I am very long on Cyrix, though I believe Intel is an excellent company. The current Intel Stock price is very highly valued and their market position is clearly threatened. I suspect that this quarter's earning will be quite good for Intel. Look for erosion of margins and market share in 1997. Look for a 20% correction in Intel very soon! Bob

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