THE NOTE - The Wall Street Journal 's John Harwood reports a new Wall Street Journal /NBC poll shows "midway through a dismal election year, President Bush finds the underpinnings of his political support badly eroded. But they haven't collapsed."
"A new Wall Street Journal /NBC News poll documents the toll that months of setbacks have taken on the president's standing. A majority of Americans say that the Iraq war has increased terrorist threats, not reduced them, and that the U.S. economy is headed for long-term trouble. More voters want Mr. Bush defeated than want him re-elected."
"By the end of the Democratic convention late this month, Bush advisers say, the traditional 'bounce' will leave Mr. Kerry with a national lead of 10 percentage points or more. Then, they argue, the president will begin to climb back — initially because convention bounces tend to wear off at the rate of one percentage point a week and later from favorable publicity for Mr. Bush's own convention a month later. At that session in New York, just days before the third anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Mr. Bush will have the chance to fill in the blanks for voters about his second-term agenda, which is expected to include overhauling Social Security and expanding health-care coverage."
Note well those two issues: Social Security and health care coverage expansion. If Harwood is right (and when isn't he???) that is one of the most key things in any newspaper in America today.
Tad Devine, call Peter Hart: "'John Kerry's numbers … are really stagnant,' Mr. Hart says, with even many members of his own party reserving judgment about his candidacy."
That is about as close to a "to be sure" paragraph as Harwood gets. |
