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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: fooledalot who wrote (52450)3/10/1999 7:44:00 AM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
fooledalot: I don't know what reports you have been hearing. In general, I find that the US commentators, including economists and analysts always tend to underestimate Europe. Also, I have found that European MM have underestimated Wall Street and the resilience of the US economy. There is a cultural gap.

There are those who have been saying that the UK is in or about to enter a recession. In the UK the budget is decided by the government and approved by Parliament. The budget is based on economic forecasts - they are not made lightly. The forecast I relayed to you yesterday was made by the Chancellor in his Budget Speech. It is mildly more optimistic than the consensus.

I have not seen any comments here that give especially heavy emphasis to the effects of German problems on the UK economy. Germany is very influential in Europe. Interest rates are much lower in Europe than in the UK. The UK will be lowering its rates to counter its economic slowdown and to bring it in line with Europe before entering the Euro. Because of the unification of Germany there is still a lot of public debt and a lot of unemployment in Germany. It is in Germany's itnerest to stimulate growth, but Germany has always been very reluctant to be soft on inflation. The Central European Bank is lowering interest rates even further. Forecasts are that all of these measures will take effect. Intermediate and the long-term future is for growth, not further recession.

I don't have a link, but I'm sure The Economist web site will provide accurate figures for consensus forecasts.
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