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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 246.95+4.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52447)4/11/2001 8:01:57 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff   of 53903
 
Zeev: Re: ": "How worse can it be?" What he failed to observe is that when things are really really bad, companies layoff people left and right, marginal players go broke,. and the stronger eat the weaker. We have not seen much of that yet in the semi space as yet"

Well, for Joseph things were so bad on Monday that he downgraded the semis but then he put on a different face today to say that things were so bad that they could not get any worse and so he upgraded the semis. Same premise; different conclusion for Joseph over the span of a few days. His analysis is like the volatility in the Nasdaq -- wild daily swings. Like you say, things can go from bad to worse in this segment in a heartbeat. But the alternative conclusion is that while things may not get much worse for the sector, they may not necessarily improve at all either. They may level off at a lower level. So how much does one want to pay for a stagnant balance sheet that goes nowhere but may in fact trend down or tick up? Semis look like a dressed up balance sheets from the huge upcycle at this point with no place to go.

LRCX is laying off a nice chunk of people. Not necessarily a vote of confidence for the future upswing. Too bad analysts did not seem interested in asking about this point.

Semis were relatively weak yesterday. The close yesterday did not exceed the April 5th close while the Nasdaq and NDX went well over their April 5th close then. But the upgrades put the semis in rally mode from an oversold state.
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