Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (5257)	3/19/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (2) of 18691

To all, Chuck Hill from First Call was just on CNBC again talking about analyst estimate revisions. He compared the downward revisions he is seeing to those of 1990 leading into the recession. Went on to say that downward revisions for Q2 are coming in sharper and earlier than is usual (some are normal due to expectations management by companies). Q2 estimates now show growth at 7% (I missed what number he gave for Q1). Q3 and Q4 still show a sharp rebound from the slow first half though with Q3 growth at 12% and Q4 at 17%. Basically, analysts apparently are revising this Q and next down, but leaving the full year pretty much alone, so that shifts the growth out (he didn't say this, but others have been saying it recently). He did say, and I think I have this pretty much word-for-word, "the market is in denial about the earnings problem". A bit of an understatement, but I agree. Bob

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