Re "think MSN, Windows2000, MSNBC, homeadvisor, carpoint, biz talk, enterprise s/w, Pocket PC, x-box, firs 9 months of year 2000 was a lull in MSFT biz, due huge upgrades pre-Y2K and no new major product. Next 12 - 24 months are where the fireworks are."
John, of those things, all are money losers except for Win2K and Enterprise S/W, and these are not new products, just incremental upgrades. I might agree that MSFT's biggest potential profit increase could come from enterprise SW, but even if MSFT were to gain large marketshare at the expense of Sun, Linux, and Mac OS X (yes OS X will be a contender, it runs Apache and all other Unix server software), the resulting growth would only be enough to support its P/E (at current price, let alone your target price) for a year or two. They are simply too big to grow like a startup. To continue the growth they have seen over the last 25 years, they would have to become a multi-trillion dollar company, and would have to own every business sector from real estate and banking to government and religion. It ain't gonna happen, "Bush effect" or none.
Dave |
