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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 205.50-1.5%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST
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To: Tim Luke who wrote (52647)8/24/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: Souze   of 61433
 
Tim,

Keep up the good work. Take ASND's price down as low as you can <g> - you're not the only one you wants a low entry point!. And keep it there for at least two weeks; I figure it will take at least that long to open a new brokerage account. I'm opening the new account solely to buy ASND Jan 45 Calls outside my IRA; all my trading up to this point has been under an IRA umbrella.

I see ASND's price pushing $100 by year end. Why?

1) Ascend's 3rd qtr will be great;
2) Lucent will reach a buyout agreement with Ascend management;
3) buy-out price will be north of $80/share, probably a one-for-one share exchange. 50 multiple x (1.60-1.72/'99 earnings) = $80-86.
50ish multiple is very possible due to need for enticement. This will be a buy-out, not a rescue. At mid $80's share price, might as well make it one for one.
4) the 'street' will love this merger. LU's price (hence ASND's) will push $100.

As an aside, I view Mory's comments about upcoming acquisitions as neutral. The timeframe given, 3-6 months out, is after Oct 1, thus giving time to see if an LU bid materializes before buying anything. He's running a business. He cann't sit back and count on a proposal from Lucent; he has to plan as if that bid is not going to happen, at the same time keeping the door open for it to happen.

Just my opinions. View them as counterpoints to your points. They are sincere, as I trust yours are also. Only thing for sure is that we cann't both be right.

Good investing,

Souze
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