Polls, Hah! Thats all you got?
The Sad History of General Election Polls, and How They Have Repeatedly Failed to Predict the Outcomes of Presidential Elections
By Nithin Coca, published Feb 02, 2008
I'm sure you've noticed all the political campaign touting general election polls. Unfortunately, these polls have a terrible history of actually predicting who will in the fall. So what is Barack Obama leads everyone in Zogby, woop-dee-do! Does John Edwards leads in Rassmussen, oh my lord! Clinton leads in ARG? Yowsie! I'm going to explore how the polls have failed repeatedly, and show you the real margin of error. So next time you see a poll, read it with caution!
Here are some of the worst disasters of General Election polling from the last 24 years of Presidential elections. After this January's debacle in New Hampshire, can we just argue on the issues and the REASONS why to support a candidate, and ignore faulty polls?
1976
Late July - Gallup
Jimmy Carter 62%
Gerald Ford 30%
Final Results
Carter 50.1%
Ford 48.0%
Average MOE - 14.95%
This sort of shift would make it a blowout for either side of the aisle.
1980 (this one's for those of you who say - "polls shift over time")
Nov 1980, Gallup Pre-Election Poll
Carter 44%
Reagan 41%
Final Results
Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41.0%
Average MOE - 5.85% = the margin of error in every GE poll this year. This really embarrassed the pollsters, so of course, they went ahead and did it again.
1988
5/17 - NYT/CBS
Michael Dukakis 49%
George Bush 39%
Final Results
Bush 53.4%
Dukakis 45.6%
Average MOE - 7.9%
A shift like what occurred in 1988 would make any Democrat the winner or the loser by a healthy margin.
1992
June 1992 Time/CNN
Ross Perot 37%
George Bush 24%
Bill Clinton 24%
Final Results
Clinton 43.0%
Bush 37.4%
Perot 18.9%
Average MOE - 20.1%. Imagine if Bloomberg's runs, I foresee similar dynamics.
2000
Sept 2000 Newsweek
Al Gore 49%
George W. Bush 39%
Final Results
Bush 47.9%
Gore 48.4%
Average MOE - 4.8%
So all the undecided went for Bush, eh? Polls are worthless in close races. Hmmm, sounds familiar, doesn't it?
In conclusion, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. |
