Stephen, re:Position Squaring
Yes! IMO, position squaring started in earnest last Friday. (Of course, this simplistically implies a long futures, short stock scenario.)
Question: If you were risk averse -- geared toward profiting from subtle price discrepancies vs. human psychology -- would you square before or after the Fed Chairman speaks? Would you have concerns that AG might clarify statements which could have been miscast by the media?
It is likely that some upside exists tomorrow AM, possibly approaching resistance (8095). However, volume on downturns has increased, although only slightly. It is volume relative to direction which has concerned me since before Labor Day. (You may recall a 9/4 post -- just prior to AG's speech -- where I projected a BIG labor Day rally, citing low sell-side volume.) Iff volume improves on intra-day downturns, then I'd expect the trend to resume; the alternative is buyers attempting to time purchases and/or jump on momentum. I could be all wet, but I will not add PUTS unless the volume situation improves.
BTW, today's 5min $TICKI is as follows:
9 events which were above +20
3 events which were below -20
(Measure of net uptick/downtick for 30 DOW INDU components.)
GT,
Alan |
