Fresh from Taiwan today
Analysts predict
--- although 64mb price continues to fall, it is bottoming out, this is due to the limited production capacity by 8"fabs; on the other hand, 12" fabs will not start operating until 2002. Therefore there is a demand supply imbalance between now and 2002.
--- Such imbalance will first appear in the th qtr of 1999 and peak during the 3rd qtr of 2000.
--- The current cycle in semi's should last 4 years. ie, we should have 4 years of prosperity.
--- TSM's order is booked full until Sept, United Elec is booked full until Aug.
Do your own dd, remember the semi industry incorrectly forecasted at the beginning of last year that 1998 would have been a great year, it then incorrectly again predicted that semi's would not rebound until at least the end of 1999.
One thing is for sure, from the bottom of 10/8/98, all semi stocks have risen strongly, some acted like internets, speaking of which, the internets are acting like semi's last year. But this is another topic altogether.
I have heard warnings to the Taiwanese government that it should focus on the interent trend, rather than solely rely on companies like TSM and UMC to lead the technology sector. Something to think about, in a year or two, will we as investors be better off if we invest in semi's now. |
